Our commentary on nature-based credits has been published in Nature Sustainability. I wrote some thoughts about it here as well. This piece argues that nature-based credit markets are at a critical crossroads - recent impact evaluations showing disappointing results have threatened investor confidence. We make the case that these markets need fundamental reform to adopt the latest scientific understanding on additionality, leakage, and permanence. The key proposal is releasing credits ex-post only after proven demonstrable additionality relative to statistically-derived counterfactuals, and making credit estimation methods robust to rather than resistant to scientific improvements. Without these reforms, we risk losing one of our most promising tools for drawing private investment into conservation.