Summary. Human-driven habitat loss is recognised as the greatest cause of biodiversity loss, but we lack robust, spatially explicit metrics quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic changes in habitat extent on species' extinctions. LIFE is our new metric that uses a persistence score approach that combines ecologies and land-cover data whilst considering the cumulative non-linear impact of past habitat loss on species' probability of extinction. We apply large-scale computing to map ~30k species of terrestrial vertebrates and provide quantitative estimates of the marginal changes in the expected number of extinctions caused by converting remaining natural vegetation to agriculture, and also by restoring farmland to natural habitat. We are also investigating many of the conservation opportunities opened up via its estimates of the impact on extinctions of diverse actions that change land cover, from individual dietary choices through to global protected area development.

LIFEv1. Our efforts through 2023-24 were focussed on building the first version of the LIFE metric and addressing peer review contents, with the research expertly lead by Alison Eyres. Happily, the LIFE: A metric for quantitatively mapping the impact of land-cover change on global extinctions paper has been accepted will appear in publication later this year. Michael Dales and I are preparing an extension to the staging site to incorporate an interactive explorer of the various base maps.

A false colour version of the LIFE dataset over central and south America.

After this is done, our research efforts are focussed on improving the resolution of the persistence maps, increasing the coverage of species, and actually performing more analyses to identify newer conservation efforts.

Mapping other spatial threats. Unfortunately, individual species are affected by anthropogenic threats beyond simply habitat loss from landuse change, including hunting, agricultural practices and the introduction of invasive species. Emilio Luz-Ricca is conducting his PhD research on this topic, in particular focussing on per-species abundances and threats. Charles Emogor -- who completed his PhD in 2024 on threats to pangolins via hunting -- is also joining the Computer Lab as a Schmidt Sciences fellow and applying machine learning to predicting sources of hunting pressures on wild species.

Tying anthropogenic activity such as food consumption to biodiversity. Agriculturally-driven habitat degradation and destruction is the biggest threat to global biodiversity, and so an exciting line of work that Thomas Ball has been leading is to tie the LIFE metric with food consumption and production data and provenance modelling in order to figure out the impact of what we eat on species extinctions. The preprint on the FOOD metric (Quantifying the impact of the food we eat on species extinctions) shows that despite marked differences in per-capita impacts across countries, there are consistent patterns that could be leveraged for mitigating harm to biodiversity. We're continuing to work on refining this data and analysis, particularly via higher resolution supply chain datasets and crop yield data.