Informing Conservation Problems and Actions Using an Indicator of Extinction Risk
Alison Eyres, Andy Arnell, Richard Cuthbert, Thomas Ball, Michael Dales, Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño, Jody Holland, Emilio Luz-Ricca, Anil Madhavapeddy, Leila Pain, Thomas Swinfield, Thomas White, and Andrew Balmford.
Working paper at SSRN.
Extinction is a critical issue, with land-use change the main threat to many terrestrial species. Understanding and tackling this requires global, comparable, and scalable metrics that link land-cover change to extinction risk and are useable across diverse conservation contexts. Here, we demonstrate the flexibility of the new Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions (LIFE) metric through five distinct case studies.
- We explore the near real-time quantification of biodiversity harms in tropical hotspots by integrating LIFE with forest loss data.
- We couple LIFE with crop distribution and trade data to assess variation in extinction impacts mediated by food consumption – specifically of apples in the UK.
- We test LIFE’s suitability for use in biodiversity compensation through a hypothetical scenario in Sumatra.
- We use LIFE to prioritize competing conservation investments by comparing benefits of area-based projects in Honduras.
- We combine LIFE with counterfactual methods to evaluate the effectiveness of a long-term conservation project in Sierra Leone.
Together, these examples show that LIFE offers actionable insights into a geographically and thematically wide range of conservation challenges, from land-use planning to sustainable consumption. Like all global metrics, LIFE’s broad applicability relies on assumptions and simplifications. It should be used cautiously, and alongside local knowledge and ground-truthing, especially for restoration, offsetting, or fine-scale analysis, and in poorly studied areas. By providing an accompanying “How-to” guide, we aim to ensure LIFE can be used widely to inform understanding of the extinction crisis and support tangible actions to halt it.