Informing conservation problems and actions using an indicator of extinction risk: A detailed assessment of applying the LIFE metric
Alison Eyres, Andy Arnell, Thomas Ball, Richard Cuthbert, Michael Dales, Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño, Jody Holland, Emilio Luz-Ricca, Anil Madhavapeddy, Leila Pain, Thomas Swinfield, Thomas White, and Andrew Balmford.
Journal paper in Biological Conservation (vol 315).
Extinction is a critical issue, with land-use change the main threat to many
terrestrial species. Understanding and tackling this requires global,
comparable, and scalable metrics that link land-cover change to extinction risk
and are useable across diverse conservation contexts. Here, we demonstrate the
flexibility of the new Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions (LIFE)
metric through five distinct case studies.
- We explore the near real-time quantification of biodiversity harms in tropical hotspots by integrating LIFE with forest loss data.
- We couple LIFE with crop distribution and trade data to assess variation in extinction impacts mediated by food consumption – specifically of apples in the UK.
- We test LIFE’s suitability for use in biodiversity compensation through a hypothetical scenario in Sumatra.
- We use LIFE to prioritize competing conservation investments by comparing benefits of area-based projects in Honduras.
- We combine LIFE with counterfactual methods to evaluate the effectiveness of a long-term conservation project in Sierra Leone.
Together, these examples show that LIFE offers actionable insights into a
geographically and thematically wide range of conservation challenges, from
land-use planning to sustainable consumption. Like all global metrics, LIFE’s
broad applicability relies on assumptions and simplifications. It should be
used cautiously, and alongside local knowledge and ground-truthing, especially
for restoration, offsetting, or fine-scale analysis, and in poorly studied
areas. By providing an accompanying “How-to” guide, we aim to ensure LIFE can
be used widely to inform understanding of the extinction crisis and support
tangible actions to halt it.
Older versions
There are earlier revisions of this paper available below for historical reasons. Please cite the latest version of the paper above instead of these.
This is v1 of the publication from Jul 2025.
Informing Conservation Problems and Actions Using an Indicator of Extinction Risk
Alison Eyres, Andy Arnell, Richard Cuthbert, Thomas Ball, Michael Dales, Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño, Jody Holland, Emilio Luz-Ricca, Anil Madhavapeddy, Leila Pain, Thomas Swinfield, Thomas White, and Andrew Balmford.
Working paper at SSRN.
